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CNBC Finance

How big is the great wealth transfer? It could be over $100 trillion or $36 trillion

A new estimate for the great wealth transfer has sparked a debate over how many trillions of dollars will pass from baby boomers to their heirs, and how it will be spent and invested. Last week, Visa Business and Economic Insights released a new projection for the great wealth transfer, estimating that $36 trillion in baby boomer wealth will be passed down to Gen X and millennials over the next 20 years. The figure is a fraction of the widely cited estimate from Cerulli Associates, which says $105 trillion will pass from older generations to heirs by 2048. The more than $60 trillion gap between the two studies has raised new questions about the size and impact of the great wealth transfer. Some say it will be the largest in history, dramatically reshaping wealth management, charity and the global wealth landscape. Others say its impact will be far more limited and simply marks a continuation of long-term inheritance trends. The dueling Visa and Cerulli numbers highlight just how important the estimates have become for wealth managers and other companies overhauling their businesses to prepare for the next generation of wealth. Visa, as a credit card payments company, focuses its study on the amount of inherited wealth that will be spent by everyday American consumers. Cerulli, being a financial research firm, focuses its study on the total wealth being transferred, including the outsized share of fortunes being passed down by the ultra wealthy. While Cerulli focuses on all wealth transfers in coming decades, Visa looked only at transfers from baby boomers. "We wanted to go through and inspect how much money will actually be spent," said Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa. "A lot of people think about the $93 trillion or $124 trillion and think 'All that money's going to be available for spending; this is going to be incredible.' That's why we went through the kind of the step-by-step process." Visa's process started with the total amount of wealth held by today's baby boomers, which it put at about $93 trillion. The report then stripped out liabilities, which includes mortgage debt, of $5 trillion and subtracted the wealth of the top 1%, estimated at $28 trillion. Best said the top 1%, or those with wealth of at least $12 million, approach money very differently from the rest of consumers. They spend a much smaller share of their wealth and they tend to buy different things. "They don't spend like the rest of us," Best said. "They're buying yachts and airplanes. It's all great for the economy, but that's not what the average person really thinks of. So we removed that top 1%, to put this more on a normal or level playing field." Visa then stripped out the retirement spending of baby boomers, which could be larger than expected. Because boomers are living longer and spending their wealth more than past generations, Visa estimates their retirement spending at $16 trillion. It also subtracted $8 trillion for charity and taxes. In addition, Visa focused its analysis exclusively on the wealth being transferred from baby boomers over the next 20 years. Cerulli looked at transfers from all generations by 2048, which includes members of the older Silent Generation, as well as the younger Generation Xers, who are now between 46 and 61 years old. After taking out the debt, the fortunes of the top 1%, retirement spending, taxes and charity, Visa estimates that boomers will pass on only $36 trillion of their $93 trillion in wealth.

How big is the great wealth transfer? It could be over $100 trillion or $36 trillion
North America
CNBC Economy

Consumer prices rose 3.5% annually in June, less than expected as energy prices eased

Consumer prices posted their biggest decline in more than six years during June as a sharp swoon in energy prices provided at least temporary relief from this year's inflation surge, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, was lower than expected across the board. The CPI fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a drop of 0.2% and an inflation rate of 3.8%, following the 4.2% reading in May. The monthly decline in headline inflation was the biggest since April 2020. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was flat on the month, putting the 12-month rate at 2.6%. The consensus forecast was for respective increases of 0.2% and 2.9%, following a 2.9% May level. The energy index slumped 5.7% in June, its biggest monthly drop since April 2020, though it still surged 15.7% on an annual basis, pushed by a 26.7% gain for gasoline. However, gasoline and fuel oil both saw decreases of more than 9% in June. In addition, services costs, which are closely watched by Federal Reserve policymakers for longer-run inflation trends, moderated significantly. Services excluding energy costs were flat, with shelter rising just 0.1% and transportation services posting a 0.3% decline. Food prices rose 0.2%, while new vehicles were flat and used cars and trucks saw a 0.2% decline. Apparel prices, which are sensitive to both energy and tariff inputs, fell 0.6%. Stock market futures were mostly positive following the report while Treasury yields were sharply lower. Traders continued to expect the Fed to hike in September, though they lowered the odds to 63% from better than 75% a day ago, according to the CME's FedWatch measure of futures prices. The Fed currently targets its key overnight borrowing rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. "June finally brought some relief on inflation," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "This takes the pressure off the Federal Reserve and allows the central bank to wait and see what happens. The concern is that this relief will be short-lived as the war in Iran re-starts. It's too uncertain to know how the inflation story ends." Though the inflation readings provided some hope, they are unlikely to motivate Federal Reserve officials to lower interest rates anytime soon, with the central bank broadly expected to raise its benchmark rate in September. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that it would take several months of positive readings to convince him that inflation is moving back to the central bank's 2% target. The report follows tough talk from Fed officials about inflation. Following their June meeting, policymakers released a statement flatly saying the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee "will deliver price stability."

Consumer prices rose 3.5% annually in June, less than expected as energy prices eased
North America
CNBC Finance

Inside the Chinese fraud rings stealing billions from banks and retailers

When a man in a black Air Jordan T-shirt walked up to a self-checkout kiosk at a Louisiana Lowe's last spring, he looked like any other customer. Over the course of about seven minutes, he methodically rang up different gift cards for $95 each, using his phone to tap-to-pay for each card as a red-vested associate circled nearby, surveillance video showed. Unknown to the employee, the man was part of a sprawling Chinese crime ring, using stolen credit cards to buy the gift cards while a Southeast Asian scam compound coached him through each transaction through the wireless headphones in his ears, police say. "We know that there are hundreds of individuals at any one time doing this across the country," said Adam Parks, an assistant special agent in charge with U.S. Homeland Security Investigations, who investigated the case. "Even though you think that's $95 every transaction, that adds up to a lot of money." After the man left the hardware store, he purchased more gift cards with stolen credit card information at other retailers only to return to the original Lowe's the same day to repeat the act, Parks said. He was not arrested and is still a suspect, he added. Lowe's didn't respond to repeated requests for comment from CNBC. While credit card theft and fraud isn't new, with the proliferation of tap-to-pay and growing use of retail apps, these digital thefts are shaping the next wave of organized retail crime and earning Chinese gangs as much as $1 billion annually, police said. Unlike typical retail theft operations — where criminals clear out shelves in big box stores and resell merchandise piece by piece on online marketplaces — the crimes can be carried out right under a store employee's nose or from a computer anywhere in the world. "It's very low risk for the bad actors," said Scott Glenn, vice president of asset protection at The Home Depot. "It's not the same thing as walking into a Home Depot, filling up a cart full of power tools, and then walking out. It's just not as visible, it's not as obvious to what's happening out there and so it's become a more preferred method over the last several years." Fraudsters have selected retailers as their targets because their platforms carry sensitive information such as stored credit cards and personal data but they do not have the same level of security as banks, according to industry experts and law enforcement. There's no firm data on how much retailers are losing from digital forms of retail crime, but CNBC found around a dozen criminal cases across the country affecting a wide variety of retailers that police said involve a combination of organized groups and low-level fraudsters. The cases are complex and often hard for local authorities to handle, said Capt. Matt Lawson of the Knox County Sheriff's Office in Tennessee, who said he's been investigating a fraud ring with ties to Chinese organized crime. Unless the theft hits a certain dollar threshold or rises to the level of a federal crime, "it's kind of like they get away with it almost," he said. Tap-to-pay fraud, which involves a fraudster adding a stolen credit card to their digital wallet and using it to buy gift cards or merchandise, often starts with a familiar text message and can end with an unwitting consumer's identity up for sale on platforms such as Telegram.

Inside the Chinese fraud rings stealing billions from banks and retailers
Europe
BBC Business

The 20-somethings betting big on tech stocks

In her teens, Michelle Huynh, the eldest daughter of migrant parents in Australia, made a promise to her family that she would become a millionaire by the time she turned 30. The 26-year-old describes it as "a somewhat silly promise" inspired by the sacrifices her non-English-speaking parents made to raise the family. But she is trying to make that dream come true by investing her savings in the stock market. "Times are so different and investing has become a necessity," says Huynh, who works in sales for a tech firm. "It feels like our purchasing power is shrinking. This is the only way to combat that." This year, the technology-driven surge in stock markets has edged her closer to that goal. With more than a third of her investments in tech stocks, by the middle of July that part of her savings had jumped this year by 50% - a rise of A$31,000 (£16,100; $21,666). But those gains have now eased to about A$22,000 as the sector is going through what she calls a "wild moment". Huynh says she's prepared for the volatility, viewing those investments as a long-term bet. The rise in tech stocks, led by firms riding the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, has attracted large numbers of ordinary investors, many of them in their 20s and early 30s, even as some analysts warn that the fervour around AI may be overblown. Retail investors have been caught up in the excitement, which has been fuelled by social media and marketing efforts to draw non-professionals, says Glenn Tan from advisory firm Providend. The tech-heavy Nasdaq in the US is up by about 10% this year, while Japan's Nikkei 225 has risen by more than 20%. That volatility is most apparent in South Korea. Seoul's Kospi index, which includes tech heavyweights like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, has jumped by more than 50% since January.

The 20-somethings betting big on tech stocks
Europe
BBC Business

Burnham has big ideas - but what will they cost?

Image source, WireImage via Getty ImagesByFaisal IslamEconomics editorPublished20 July 2026Up until this point, the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has described his policy changes with a broad brush. From today, he faces the constraints, trade offs, and realities of high national office. For example, Burnham has said Tuesday's announcements on cost of living support would be paid for. In other words, it would mean a tax rise or spending cut, so we will see rather quickly what the new PM prioritises when push comes to shove. Meanwhile, the markets seem to have already reacted to the suggestion he would be using some "flexibility" in his borrowing rules to help with new announcements. The UK government's 10-year borrowing rose above 5% on Monday after falling in recent days. It has not gone up in this way in other European economies. The move was not huge, but it shows the sensitivities at a moment when Burnham is overhauling his cabinet - including replacing Rachel Reeves as chancellor with former defence secretary John Healey. The "flexibility" Burnham was talking about is, I understand, about the treatment of financial institutions. This has occurred in some green energy policies and essentially helps exempt certain types of borrowing from the measures of debt. There is scope for this model to extend to housing and other infrastructure. It was not a general suggestion of, for example, using up the increased headroom against the government's borrowing rules. All this shows how every tricky decision and trade off is being watched by the country and the markets at the same time. Healey is a surprise choice as chancellor but perhaps should not have been. He spent half a decade in Gordon Brown's treasury with specific knowledge of that era's attempt to regenerate and devolve power - the Regional Development Agencies, later scrapped by the coalition government. No 10 is stressing that Burnham and Healey "have the same outlook" on the need to maintain economic stability and the current fiscal rules, reindustrialisation, devolution, helping people with the cost-of-living crisis and backing British jobs and British industry to drive growth across the country. But immediately there is a trade-off here. Healey resigned as defence secretary last month over funding the defence settlement. He was literally calling for more defence spending, and some of the previous increases in defence funding came from cutting back home infrastructure spending on transport and on energy investment. How will he square those things as chancellor? In his first comments as chancellor, Healey has told broadcasters that he will work "in lockstep" with the new PM "to meet the fiscal rules with a buffer against uncertainty", and making life more affordable. He had revealed he had just spoken to Andrew Bailey the Bank of England governor.

Burnham has big ideas - but what will they cost?
Europe
BBC Business

John Healey becomes chancellor weeks after shock resignation from defence job

Image source, EPAByBrian WheelerPolitical reporterPublished20 July 2026John Healey - who has been announced as Andy Burnham's Chancellor of the Exchequer - is seen as the ultimate safe pair of hands. Which made the 66-year-old's resignation as Sir Keir Starmer's defence secretary just over a month ago all the more shocking. Healey's assessment of the government's much-delayed defence investment plan - that it fell "well short of what is required for defence and the country at this dangerous time" - was devastating and undoubtedly hastened Sir Keir's departure from Downing Street. Now he's in charge of the funding not just of defence - but of every arm of government. He replaces Rachel Reeves, who had served as Sir Keir's chancellor since Labour's 2024 landslide election win. Loyal, and not someone who briefs against colleagues to journalists or indulges in political games, he has been around the top of the Labour party for three decades. His resignation came days before Andy Burnham's pivotal by-election in Makerfield, adding to the sense that Sir Keir's premiership was falling apart. Healey earned plaudits from across the political spectrum for resigning on a matter of principle. He had clashed with Reeves, the woman he is now replacing, pointedly saying in is resignation letter that the Treasury had been "unwilling" to "commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats". His return to government in the most vital job of all in cabinet after the prime minister is an even bigger surprise than his resignation, given that his name had not been mentioned as a frontrunner in the increasingly feverish speculation about who Burnham would choose. Sources told the BBC that Burnham and Healey "have the same outlook" on many of the prime minister's priorities, including reindustrialisation, the cost-of-living, and driving growth across the country. The softly-spoken Yorkshireman has a remarkable record as someone who has been on the Labour frontbench almost continuously since 2001.

John Healey becomes chancellor weeks after shock resignation from defence job
North America
CNBC Finance

FAA lets Boeing sign off on 737 Max, 787 airworthiness certificates again

The U.S. government on Friday said Boeing can once again issue airworthiness certificates for its bestselling 737 Max aircraft and 787 Dreamliners, an authority that was stripped from the manufacturer after fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 of the 737 Max. The Federal Aviation Administration said last September that Boeing could ticket its own planes before they're handed off to customers for only some of the Maxes and Dreamliners, alternating weeks between the FAA and Boeing doing that work. "During the past eight months, the FAA has seen comparable production quality findings when Boeing issued airworthiness certificates and when the FAA issued them," the agency said Friday. "Based on these results, the FAA determined it can safely return this responsibility to Boeing." The company said in a statement that it "will continue to work under the oversight of the FAA in building safe, high-quality commercial airplanes that comply with all airworthiness certification requirements." The decision is a vote of confidence for Boeing, one of the biggest U.S. exporters by value, from its regulator and the U.S. government after years of safety crises, including the two crashes and a near catastrophe in January 2024 when a door plug blew off of a new 737 Max 9 moments into the flight. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.

FAA lets Boeing sign off on 737 Max, 787 airworthiness certificates again
North America
Yahoo Finance

Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500 Futures Slip As Chip Selloff Overshadows Strong Earnings Season: NFLX, SNDK, SPCX, MRVL Stocks In Focus

U.S. stock futures extended a decline into the overnight session late Thursday after all benchmark indexes closed lower amid a selloff in the technology sector, particularly among semiconductor names. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.61%, Dow futures were down 0.41%, and S&P 500 futures declined 0.38% at 9:11 PM EDT. All three benchmark indexes closed lower on Thursday amid growing concerns over AI sustainability. The Nasdaq Composite led the declines, tumbling nearly 400 points to close 1.47% lower. The S&P 500 was down 0.51%, while the Dow closed 0.20% lower. U.S. markets bled amid rising concerns over ballooning capital expenditures from AI players after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) massively hiked its capital expenditures for 2026. The company raised its 2026 capex forecast to between $60 billion and $64 billion in its latest earnings update on Thursday, up substantially from its previous $52 billion to $56 billion range. However, many Wall Street analysts believe that the selloff is temporary. CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Singapore-based DeFiance Capital, Arthur Cheong, said in a post on X that this appeared to be a mid-cycle correction instead of a full-cycle top. “Given all the recent information I'm leaning hard toward the recent correction in AI and Semi complex being mid cycle correction instead of full cycle top,” he said. “The positioning and leverage on AI and Semi names got too extreme and therefore get flushed heavily now and I expect market to recover strongly once the summer doldrums are over.” The declines come at the start of a strong earnings season, with big banks kicking off the cycle earlier this week with solid results. On Thursday, TSM’s second-quarter print posted a beat on revenue and profit due to strong AI-driven demand, but shares slipped due to capex worries. Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) also posted Q2 earnings, topping estimates amid lower medical costs, while raising its earnings and cash flow outlook for 2026. Netflix Inc. (NFLX), however, posted disappointing results. James E. Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, said in a post on X that the decline in stocks despite strong earnings results reflected “stretched valuation and geopolitical risk, and a growing consensus that earnings growth is near its peak,” adding that it was not a surprise that “the market didn’t reward the beat.” On the geopolitical front, the U.S. has continued its attack on Iran for a sixth-consecutive day. The U.S. Central Command updated in a post on X: “At 2 p.m. ET today, U.S. forces began conducting a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities.” Media reports indicate that the U.S. struck several civilian and strategic locations on Thursday, including Sirik, a key city overseeing the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Iranshahr Airport was also targeted, with local reports indicating damage to airport facilities.

Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500 Futures Slip As Chip Selloff Overshadows Strong Earnings Season: NFLX, SNDK, SPCX, MRVL Stocks In Focus
Asia
The Hindu BusinessLine

Gujarat unveils shipbuilding policy; offers 50-year concessions, targets ₹27,000-crore investments

Gujarat government on Monday unveiled its shipbuilding and repair policy 2026, setting an ambitious target of attracting ₹27,000 crore of investment through a mega greenfield shipbuilding cluster at Kuchhadi in Porbandar, while offering waterfront concession and lease periods of up to 50 years for large shipyards as part of its plan to emerge as India’s leading shipbuilding and ship repair hub. Launching the policy in Gandhinagar, Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel said the Centre has approved the establishment of the mega greenfield shipbuilding cluster at Kuchhadi. The project is expected to attract about ₹23,700 crore in private investment for shipyards and ancillary industries, while ₹3,300 crore will be invested in common marine and land infrastructure with support from the Centre and the Gujarat government. The policy on the back of the businessline’s report on June 24 about the Gujarat Maritime Board (GMB) inviting expressions of interest (EoIs) for developing three greenfield shipyards at Mithapur (Devbhumi Dwarka), Ghogha (Bhavnagar) and Vadhera (Amreli), an Integrated mega shipbuilding cluster at Kuchhadi in Porbandar district. To provide long-term certainty to investors, the policy provides waterfront concession and lease periods of up to 50 years for large shipyards capable of building vessels above 30,000 DWT (Deadweight Tonnage). Smaller shipyards with capacity below 30,000 DWT will get an initial concession period of 15 years, extendable up to 30 years based on performance. The policy allows development of commercially viable shipbuilding and repair yards through multiple models, including sites identified by the Gujarat Maritime Board, shipyards within private ports, shipyards within Integrated Mega Shipbuilding Parks (IMSPs), standalone proposals submitted by PPP players and standalone proposals by public sector undertakings (PSUs). Private port developers will be permitted to establish shipyards within their authorised waterfront areas. Shipbuilding and repair yards developed within private port limits will be considered part of the concession agreement or sub-concession agreements with port operators, with the licence period of such shipyards running concurrently with the BOOT period of the port. For IMSPs, the Gujarat Maritime Board will ensure that no single developer is allotted more than 50 per cent of the total land area, enabling participation of multiple developers and creating a diversified industrial ecosystem. The government on Mondy said Detailed project reports (DPRs) are being prepared by the Gujarat Maritime Board for the establishment of the Mega Greenfield Shipbuilding Cluster at the location. The cluster will house two to three world-class shipyards along with a network of ancillary industries. The common infrastructure planned for the cluster includes breakwaters, floating cranes, heavy-lift ships, dredging facilities, harbour basin development, navigation channels, roads, electricity supply, water supply and other shared utilities. The integrated approach is expected to reduce infrastructure costs for investors, speed up project execution and improve Gujarat’s competitiveness as a maritime manufacturing hub. To promote investments, the policy offers a range of fiscal and non-fiscal incentives, including capital assistance, stamp duty reimbursement, interest subvention, dredging assistance, subsidies to encourage procurement from MSMEs, support for electricity tariffs, subsidies on water charges, incentives for marine equipment manufacturing clusters and additional benefits for early-bird investors who commence development activities within the prescribed timelines. Under the policy, new shipyards will receive capital assistance of 10 per cent of eligible fixed capital investment (eFCI), subject to a maximum assistance of ₹100 crore during the policy implementation period. For shipyards developed within IMSPs, the assistance will be 20 per cent of eFCI or a maximum of ₹150 crore, whichever is lower.

Gujarat unveils shipbuilding policy; offers 50-year concessions, targets ₹27,000-crore investments