How Roku fits into Fox's future — and what investors are missing about the deal
The media industry has long been preparing for consolidation and mega deals. And yet Fox Corp.'s acquisition of Roku seems to have taken the market by surprise. On Monday, Fox said it would acquire Roku for $22 billion, bringing a streaming tech platform — in addition to a second free, ad-supported streaming service — into its portfolio of linear TV networks and Tubi. While analysts lauded the deal as a strategic pivot for the legacy media company, Fox shareholders received the news differently. Its stock traded down 16% on Monday, hitting a 52-week low. Shares fell another 4% on Tuesday. "We view this as a strategic fit. Fox marries its strong content with Roku's leading distribution platform and first party data that add scale and can enhance the value proposition with advertisers," Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion wrote in a note on Monday. Champion highlighted Fox's long list of sports rights and Roku's position as the leading streaming platform — offered on both dedicated devices and smart TVs — as "highly complementary." "The combined company will be the third largest player in the U.S. by share of viewing, spanning broadcast, cable, local and streaming," he said. Some industry analysts and insiders — who didn't want to comment publicly on market reaction — attributed the sharp stock reaction to the new debt that Fox would be taking on as part of the deal. Still, the company's leverage will be relatively low after the deal's expected close in the first half of next year. One industry insider noted that Fox is also likely to spend more when the NFL reopens media rights negotiations, which have already begun for CBS owner Paramount Skydance. Mike Proulx, Forrester's vice president and research director, told CNBC in an email that it was too early to take this as a negative market reaction and noted that big media deals "often get punished in the short term because they introduce uncertainty." "In this case investors are likely questioning the near-term cost-benefit. But what the market is missing is the long-term strategic importance of this deal. It's a must for Fox," Proulx said. "It's far from just a content play. The long-term value is in owning the platform, the data, and the ad stack. That's what this deal gives Fox and helps the company to future proof." In a MoffettNathanson note on Monday, the analyst firm called the deal "an unexpected strategic pivot." LightShed Partners called it a "bold move." "Legacy media has long suffered from the innovator's dilemma, with most players allergic to risk," LightShed analysts said in a note. "Fox has repeatedly talked about using its financial strength to make acquisitions and was routinely criticized for being underlevered, but Roku is a far larger acquisition than any Fox investor expected."